The demonstrations in the Arab countries began in Tunisia where Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to relinquish power. This encouraged Arabs elsewhere, particularly in Egypt, to take to the streets to protest against authoritarian regimes that have long repressed the masses. The relative success of the Egyptian people served as an inspiration to other Arab people to demand change, particularly in Libya, Yemen and Syria.
Despite the different factors shaping up the various uprisings in the Middle East it must be stressed that Hosni Mubarak’s fall from grace gave many ordinary citizens hope of toppling their own suppressors. Egypt has long been considered as the most powerful Arab nation, even more after the destruction of Saddam Hussein’s military, so the fact that Mubarak was forced to abdicate emboldened many people in the Arab world. Without delving deep into the circumstances which made Mubarak’s ouster possible, the Egyptian military’s willingness to sacrifice the face of the regime played a dominant rule in this hypothetical transition of power.
As of today, the leadership of the armed forces remains in power in Cairo. Below is a list of the main factors behind the uprisings in the Arab countries:
1) A young and restless population: The Arab youth feel disengaged and marginalized when they see aging rulers who have nothing in common with the public yet maintain a tight grip over their country. Many of the youth desire the freedom to express themselves and covet the ability to engage in activities without having to answer to a totalitarian regime and its secret police. The younger generations want to fulfill their ambition and have dreams yet feel they cannot achieve any of that whilst being ruled by an iron fist.
2) Younger generations not witness to atrocities of autocratic regimes: The Arab youth makeup a considerable portion of the population in their respective countries, in particular Egypt and Syria. In both countries, over 30% of the population is under the age of 14 while over 60% are between the ages of 15 and 64 leaving under 5% over the age of 65. Most of these younger adults and teenagers were not old enough to recall the brutality of long-time dictators when they took over power. None would likely have even heard of how Moammar Gadhafi took over in Libya since he has been in rule for a few decades while Mubarak took power following the assassination of former President Anwar al-Saddat in 1981.
The list goes on in other Arab nations where dictators and their heirs have succeeded as absolute rulers. This might explain the initial optimism in Syria when Bashar al-Assad, the relatively young son of late dictator Hafez al-Assad, took over in Damascus following his father’s death. Bashar was not the son being groomed to take over power yet his older brother’s Bassel’s unforeseen death propelled him to the forefront and he duly took over upon Hafez’s death. Many in Syria believed Bashar, who spent time studying in London , would be willing to introduce reforms yet they were to be disappointed as he failed to implement any changes worth mentioning.
3) Internet and social networking age: The age of social media has allowed the younger people in Egypt and Syria to express their opinion, plan protests and organize future gatherings to appeal for reform and/or change. In Egypt, Facebook served as the communication tool for many when they were protesting against Mubarak’s rule. In Syria, YouTube has clearly become the preferred means for demonstrators to post and share their videos covering the tragedies facing the Syrian people from the regime’s snipers, government thugs such as the Shabiha, the military and other armed gangs loyal to al-Assad.
4) Weak Economy and rising unemployment rate: Even the oil-rich Arab states have a considerable chunk of the population living under harsh conditions despite the vast wealth generated by their country’s oil fields. Nevertheless, the rich coffers of the Arab Gulf governments have enabled the absolute rulers to placate the public through the introduction of financial incentives as prominently witnessed in the case of Saudi Arabia. Only Yemen is witnessing notable protests due to the country’s dearth in natural resources and its ailing, poor economy. The ruling family in Bahrain faced serious challenges but was able to put down the protests with the aid of other Gulf states, most notably Saudi Arabia. It must be said that the use of demonstrations as a tool to voice displeasure has spilled over from the Arab world to Israel with protests in Tel Aviv taking place to complain about various economic grievances.
5) Once again, Egypt inspires other Arabs: One should stress on the outcome in Egypt being a very critical factor in raising expectations in other Arab countries where the citizens are demanding freedom of speech and the right to express themselves as well as extensive political and economic reforms. One should keep an eye on Libya because the fall of the ruthless and disillusioned dictator Gadhafi will give further impetus to those protesting Bashar al-Assad’s cruel reaction to the demands of the people in Syria. It would not be shocking to see a change in Libya lead to a considerable swelling in the ranks of the Syrian demonstrators and a major boost to their morale if the world makes sure the Libyan autocrat is ousted one way or another.
While the conditions in Libya are different from those prevailing in Syria, the fall of Gadhafi would serve as an encouraging benchmark for the Syrian protesters that they too can oust Bashar after the Tunisians, Egyptians and hopefully the Libyans have succeeded in forcing their oppressors to abdicate.